The viability scores above do not embody the number of people living in each country (and therefore potential market size), nor the cost comparison of the three target fuels with grid electricity. The following section seeks to explore in greater depth how these critical market dynamics might influence the choice of early markets.
Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda all represent large markets that are likely to transition quickly (dark green colour on the Figure indicates high viability score). Nigeria represents the largest market, however its viability score is one of the lowest (indicated by orange colour), indicating that although a transition to PV-eCook could have a big impact, it is not likely to occur very quickly. Ethiopia has a large rural population, however the fact that it sits to the left of the origin to top right diagonal indicates that it is likely that a smaller proportion of these people purchase their fuel. Zambia, Rwanda, Malawi and Somalia also represent significant populations that fit into our target market segments and would be relatively easy to reach (i.e. high viability scores).
Target market segments and viability for PV-eCook in Sub-Saharan Africa.
The use of grid electricity for cooking barely happens in Sub Saharan Africa, with the notable exceptions of South Africa, Ethiopia, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe. This is thought to be principally due to inaccessible, unreliable and/or expensive electricity (or at least the perception that it is expensive). However, the presence of significant populations cooking with electricity in these five countries does suggest that in those contexts, there are few significant cultural barriers to cooking with electricity and that electricity is more likely to be an aspirational cooking fuel for rural off-grid HHs. With high levels of access, high reliability and relatively low unit cost, South Africa leads the way for electric cooking uptake in Sub-Saharan Africa (Balmer 2007; Beute 2012; Cowan 2008).